Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau only announced price, financial and PMI data in February. Producer prices grew more slowly. PPI rose 9.1% y/y, down another 1.2 pps from December. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 8.85% y/y, while CPI growth also slowed. CPI rose 0.9% y/y in January, down 0.6 pps from December. In particular, food prices fell -3.8% y/y, down 2.6 pps from December, dragging CPI down 0.72 pps. That is the leading factor lowering CPI. The falling price levels offer ample room for further money expansion.

At…

Growth continues to be weak. In November, industrial output grew 3.8% y/y, down 1.1 pps from Q3, much lower than the growth rates of recent years. Investment is also low, and was up 7.9% y/y, and down 1.2 pps from January-June. Its adjusted growth rate is instead negative. The real estate market is still cold: sales were down -14.2% y/y in November.

Consumption rose 3.9% y/y in November, down 1 pps from October, and its adjusted growth rate was 0.5% y/y, hitting its lowest level this year. But trade is still strong. Imports were up 26% y/y, and up 9.8 pps from Q3. Exports were up16.6% y/y.

Growth has weakened, especially in services. In August, industrial output grew 5.3% y/y, and was up 11.2% from August 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.4%, down 0.2 ppts from July, and down 1.2 ppts from Q2. The service production index has slowed since Q2, and grew only 4.8% y/y in August, after being further hit by the COVID outbreaks, down 2.9 ppts from Q4 2020, and down 2.1 ppts from 2019.

Investment was up 8.9% y/y January-August, and increased 8% from August 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4%, down 0.5 ppt from H1. Real estate is cooling dramatically, to the 2008…

The Chinese economy has been stably rising in Q2. GDP was up 7.9% y/y, and up 11.4% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.5%, up 0.5 pps from Q1. Industrial output was up 8.9% y/y, and up 13.7% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6% y/y, slightly lower than in Q1 but higher than the pre-pandemic 2019 level; specifically, growth in June was 6.5%.

Investment was up 12.6% y/y, and increased 9.1% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4.4% y/y, up 1.8 pps from Q1, and down 1 pps from 2019. In Q2, retail sales of social consumption goods were up 9.5% from Q2…

Growth was stable in May. Industrial output rose 8.8% y/y, and increased 13.6% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6%. Investment rose 15.4% y/y, and increased 8.5% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4.2% y/y -- still in a low growth zone.

Consumption has recovered further. In May, retail sales of social consumption goods rose 9.3% y/y from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4.5%, up 0.2 pps from April. Trade has been strong since the beginning of this year, especially for imports, which are growing robustly. In May, imports rose 39.5% y/y. Exports rose…

Growth is stable. Industrial output was up 9.8% y/y in April, and up 14.1% y/y from April 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8% y/y, the same as in Q1, and higher than the pre-pandemic levels in 2018 and 2019. Investment is still weak, and rose 8% y/y from April 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 3.9% y/y, up 1.3 pps from Q1. We expect economic growth to be strong, though fiscal and monetary policy are not loosening. Our forecast is based on strong trade growth from global economic recovery, commodity price appreciation and demand recovery.

Consumption recovered slowly. In April,…

GDP was up 18.3% y/y in Q1, and up 10.3% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of around 5%. In this report, we mostly use Q1 2019 as the benchmark period, because the major shock from the pandemic in February 2020 makes Q1 2020 data hardly comparable. The adjusted growth rate was lower than in Q4 2020, and higher than in Q3 2020, and can be viewed as stable.

In Q1 2021, industrial output was up 14% y/y from Q1 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8%, slightly lower than in Q4 2020. In particular, industrial growth in March reached 12.8% y/y, with an annualized growth rate of 6.2% y/y,…

Economic recovery is still going strong. In January-February, industrial output was up 35.1% y/y, and up 16.9% compared to January-February 2019. Annualized growth was 8.1% y/y, higher than all quarterly growth since 2015, and up 1 pps from Q4 2020. Since the Chinese economy was shut down to a large extent last February due to COVID-19, we also look at growth rates for most indicators by comparing their performance with the same period in 2019.

In January-February, investment fell -35% y/y, and was up only 3.5% y/y from the same period in 2019. The investment slowdown is mostly due to the…

Producer prices increased fast between June 2020 and January 2021, and finally turned positive. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 1% m/m, and 0.3% y/y. PPI rose 1.4% m/m, and 0.9% y/y. We expect the ex-factory price index to soon rise higher than 5% y/y, and PPI will rise higher than 8% y/y.

CPI fell -0.3% y/y. However, its seasonally adjusted growth rate was 0.3% m/m. The rise of the CPI level is mainly driven by the strong rebound of meat prices. The rebound is temporary, and linked to the Spring Festival effect. We expect the meat price will continuously drop for the…

Industrial output rose 7% y/y in November, reaching its fastest growth rate since April. Investment rose 2.6% y/y, and was up 0.8 pps from October.

Consumption was the worst-hit macro variable of the pandemic. But retail sales of consumer goods recovered further, rising 5% y/y, up 0.7 pps from October. Its real growth rate was 6.2% y/y, and was even higher than in November 2019.

CPI fell -0.5% y/y in November, turning negative for the first time, hit by a fall in pork prices. The ex-factory price index of industrial output fell -1.5% y/y, and PPI fell -1.6% y/y, up 0.6 and 0.8 pps…

In October, industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, the same rate as in September, and the highest rate this year, up 2.2 pps from October 2019. The national service production index has been rising since the economic opening in February, and achieved positive growth in May. It rose 7.4% y/y in October, up 2 pps from September, and up 0.8 pps from October 2019. Investment rose 1.8% y/y in October, up 1 pps from September.

Retail sales of social consumption goods recovered further, and were up 4.3% y/y, and up 3.4 pps from Q3. Their real growth was 4.6% y/y, up 5 pps from Q3.Even the pandemic’s…

GDP was up 4.9% y/y in Q3, a rise of 1.7 pps from Q2, but still 1.1 pps lower than in Q3 2019. Industrial output was up 5.8% y/y in Q3, up 1.4 pps from Q2, and up 0.8 pps from Q3 2019.

Investment was up 8.8% y/y, up 5 pps from Q2, and up 4.1 pps from Q3 2019, with investment in manufacturing rising fastest, by 9% y/y, up 10 pps from Q2. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 0.9% y/y, and up 4.8 pps from Q2 -- and their real growth rate was -0.4% y/y.

CPI was up 2.3% y/y in Q3, down 0.4 pps from Q2. In particular, CPI rose only 1.7% y/y in September, an accelerated decrease.…

Industrial output was up 5.6% y/y, up 0.8 pps from July, reaching the average growth rate of 2019. We expect growth might slightly exceed the pre-pandemic level for the rest of the year. Investment fell -0.3% y/y January-August, up 1.3 pps from previous months. The driving force is switching from state to private investment, reconfirming the return to pre-pandemic economic recovery.

Consumption was up 0.5% y/y, the first turn to positive growth this year, and up 1.6 pps from July. Exports were up 11.6% y/y, above 10% y/y for two consecutive months. Despite the U.S.-China conflict, exports to…

Industrial output rose 4.8% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment grew 8.3% y/y, up 2.7 pps from June, and up 2.9 pps from Q4, and is still mainly driven by state investment, with a growth rate of 12.7% y/y. The best performer among fixed asset investments is real estate, with a growth rate of 11.6% y/y in July, up 3.7 pps from Q2.

Consumption is still weak, and was down -1.1% y/y, and up 0.7 pps from June, showing customers’ caution over COVID-19. In July, exports grew 10.4% y/y, up 6.1 pps from June, and up 6.4 pps from H2 2019, possibly due to the…

GDP rose 3.2% y/y in Q2 -- a remarkable performance amid global pandemic. In June, industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from May, though has still not reached the pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state investment, was up 5.6% y/y, up 1.7 pps from June and down 0.2 pps from Q4 2019.

Retail sales of consumption goods fell -1.8% y/y in June, up 1 pps from May. Exports rose 4.1% y/y in June, achieving positive growth for three consecutive months, averaging 4.5% y/y, higher than the growth rate of H2 2019. Imports were up 6.2% y/y,…

Industrial output rose 4.4% y/y in May, up 0.5 pps from April, comparable to its pre-pandemic level, and was down just 1.5 pps from Q4 2019. Investment was up 3.9% y/y, and up 3.1 pps from April, down 1.5 pps from Q4. Government investment is the main force lifting overall investment growth.

Consumption demand continued to recover in May. Retail sales of social consumption goods fell 2.8% y/y, up 4.7 pps from April. The global pandemic is not showing any sign of abating, and is heavily impacting trade. In May, exports were up 1.4% y/y, down 6.8 pps from April, while imports plunged 12.7%…

The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) convened the annual two sessions on May 21st. Although for the first time the government did not set an annual growth target - possibly due to so many COVID-19 uncertainties ahead - we expect the implicit growth target is 1.8% for now, given the projected deficit and inflation numbers.

The economy is quickly recovering, as the pandemic has come under control. In April, industrial output growth turned positive, and was up 3.9% y/y, and up 5 pps from March, down only 2 pps from the pre-pandemic level, in…

The Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1, and GDP fell -6.8% y/y. Because the virus is almost contained in China, economic activities have since March been gradually picking up, and there were clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps from January-February.

Consumption has been hardest hit, largely due to quarantining. Retail sales of social consumption goods fell -19% y/y in Q1, and -15.8% y/y in March, up 4.7 pps from January-February. Trade has so far been largely unaffected. Exports in March were up 2.8% y/y after adjustment, down only…

The coronavirus outbreak in China has had major short-term negative effects on production activities. However, as of March 18th, within China it is largely contained, with zero new cases. The total number of global infection cases outside China has now surpassed the total number of cases in China, and the number is expanding rapidly. Industrial output in China fell -13.5% y/y in January-February, and investment fell -24.5% y/y. But we believe these two major indicators -- especially investment -- will recover soon.

We believe the Chinese economy and finance may be relatively stable, and…

The coronavirus outbreak that began in late January was one of the most severe exogenous shocks in China’s recent history, especially since it overlapped with the Chinese New Year holiday, which involves the largest population migration in human history. As of February 26th, some 80,428 cases had been confirmed in China.

The Chinese government is using monetary and fiscal policies to boost the economy. On February 2nd, the People’s Bank of China pumped $174 billion into financial markets. As of this writing, the coronavirus has been largely contained, in terms of consistently lower numbers…

The United States and China on January 16th struck a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade relations. Exports raised 5% y/y in 2019, down 2.8 pps from 2018, while imports raised 1.2% y/y, down 11.6 pps.
GDP raised 6.1% y/y last year, down 0.5 pps from 2018. Industrial output raised 5.7% y/y, down 0.5 pps, while investment raised 5.4% y/y, down 0.5 pps.
Fiscal revenue was up 3.8% y/y in January-November 2019, down 2.7 pps from the same period in 2018. Fiscal expenditure was up 7.7% y/y, up 0.9 pps. So the fiscal deficit is rapidly expanding,…

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held by top leaders December 10th-12th emphasized “stabilities.” We believe that “around 6%” is the likeliest 2020 growth target. Infrastructure investment was mentioned, suggesting that infrastructure spending will be used to support the economy, if growth slows notably below 6%.

The good news that “phase 1” of a China-U.S. trade agreement, which includes a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, and an increase of foreign investor access to China, may be signed in early 2020, has cheered the markets. There are more optimistic…

Major economic indicators are still mostly falling in October. Industrial output rose 4.7% y/y, comparable to July and August. Investment rose 3.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q3. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 7.2% y/y, and its real growth rate was 4.9% y/y, down 0.4 and 0.8 pps from Q3 respectively.

In October, exports rose 2.1% y/y, and imports fell -3.5% y/y, down1.8 and 0.6 pps from Q3. Export to US fell -13.8% y/y, but up 6.2 pps from September. Trade surplus is enlarging dramatically, and rose 36.6% y/y.

Since July, societal financing scale was slowing, and rose only 0.8%…

The economy is showing various signs of weakening. In Q3, GDP was up 6% y/y, down 0.2 pps from Q2, and down 0.5 pps from Q3, 2018. Industrial output was up 5% y/y, down 1 pp from Q3, 2018. Investment was up 4.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q2.

Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.6% y/y, down 1 pp from Q2, and down 1.4 pps from Q3, 2018. Sales’ real growth rate was 5.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from both Q2 and Q3, 2018. Imports fell 2.9% y/y, down 5.2 pps from Q2, and down 21.9 pps from Q3, 2018. Exports rose 3.9% y/y, down 1.8 pps and 6.4 pps from Q2 and Q3, 2018 respectively. The trade…

Growth is slowing further. In August, industrial output was up 4.4% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, while investment rose 4.2% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q2.

Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.5% y/y in August, down 1.1 pps from Q2. The indicator’s real growth rate was 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q2. Exports were stable, but the import growth rate was plunging. Exports were up 2.6% y/y. Yet recent export growth was rather volatile. The July-August combined growth rate was 5.9% y/y, almost the same as in Q1 and Q2. The much lower export growth to the United States was compensated for…

Growth slowed in July. Industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, down 0.4 pps from both April and May, falling to a record low rate. The main causes were low investment and consumption, sentiment mostly driven by “trade war.” Investment was up 5.1% y/y, down 0.4 pps from Q2, and down 2.4 pps from Q4 2018, a clear declining trend. Retail sales of consumer goods were up 7.6% y/y in nominal terms, down 1 pps from Q2. Their real growth rate was 5.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q2.

Though trade tensions persist, imports fell more than exports. Imports in dollar terms fell -5.9% y/y, more than in either Q1 or…

GDP rose 6.2% y/y in Q2, down 0.2 pps from Q1. Industrial output rose 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps, but notably, was up 6.3% y/y in June, obviously higher than in April and May. We judge the unusually high June growth to be a seasonal phenomenon, and unsustainable.

Fixed asset investment was up 5.5% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q1. In particular, it rose 6.3% y/y, faster than in April and May. Real estate investment rose 10.3% y/y, down 1.5 pps from Q1. This could be an indicator of real estate investment growth turning downward. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 6.5% y/y in real terms, down…

Growth is facing downward pressure. Industrial output rose 5% y/y, down 0.4 pps from April, reaching a new low rate. Investment rose 4.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from April. The decrease of investment growth rate is mainly affected by state investment because of fiscal deficit pressure. State investment rose 5.6% y/y in May, down 4.2 pps from April. In May, fiscal revenue fell -2.1% y/y, down 7.4 pps from January-April, putting further constraint on state investment. Real estate cooled further.

Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 8.6% y/y in May in nominal terms. The adjusted growth…

Almost all major economic indicators are falling. Industrial output was up 5.4% y/y, back to its low January-February level, after its March rise. Fixed asset investment was up 5.7% y/y in April, down 0.6 pps from Q1.

Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y in nominal terms, reaching their lowest growth rates in recent years, down 1.1 pps from Q1. Real sales growth was up 5.1% y/y, down 1.8 pps from Q1.

CPI was up 2.5% y/y in April, a rise of 0.2 pps from March. Monetary loosening has seemed to stop. In April, the societal financing scale turned to negative growth, after its…

The Chinese economy began to rebound in Q1, with GDP up 6.4% y/y, flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4. Then in March, GDP rose a powerful 8.5% y/y, up 1.4 pps from Q4, to its fastest growth rate since August 2014.

Investment, up 6.3% y/y, showed no clear trend. State investment was up 6.7% y/y, up 8.3 pps from Q3 2018, signaling government’s intention to keep supporting the economy.

Retail sales of consumption goods was up 8.3% y/y in Q1 in nominal terms, flat on Q4. Sales’ real growth rate was 6.9% y/y, up 0.9 pps.

Exports were up 6.7% y/y, down 1.8 pps,…

On November 29, Ms. Lisa K. Heller met with Dr. Guo Wanda, Executive Vice President of CDI in Shenzhen, China. During the meeting, Dr. Guo briefly summarized China’s overall economic performance in 2021 which was largely driven by the “dual circulation” development model. Given that the U.S. and…

On May 19, H.E. Clare Fearnley, the New Zealand Ambassador to China, led delegation to China Development Institute and was greeted by Executive Vice President Dr. Guo Wanda. The two parties exchanged views on Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA)’s role in the “dual circulation”…

On March 11, the Consul-General of Singapore in Guangzhou, Mr. Loh Tuck Keat and the Vice President of the China Development Institute, Dr. Qu Jian exchanged ideas on the priorities and directions contained in China and Shenzhen’s 14th Five Year Plan. In addition, they discussed how outward…

On March 9, 2021, The Banker magazine, part of the Financial Times Group, interviewed Dr. Yu Lingqu on issues surrounding shadow banking in China. As Dr. Yu pointed out, with closer supervision and tighter regulation, the scale of shadow banking in China has rapidly decreased, from 100 trillion…

On March 2, the Consulate General of India delegation, led by Mr. Sujit Ghosh, Consul General of India, Guangzhou, visited the CDI. Executive Vice President Dr. Guo Wanda briefly reviewed Guangdong and Shenzhen’s 2020 economic growth data, and provided insights on the further development of the…

This year’s edition of World Chinese Economic Summit was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on December 21, themed “connecting business, promoting shared prosperity and sustainability in the post-Covid new economy”.Amid this winter’s resurgence of coronavirus cases, panelists agreed that international…

On October 9, the State Council issued a circular, outlining plans to improve the quality of listed companies, in an effort to achieve healthy development of the capital market and perfect the socialist market economic system.

Regarding to the issue, China Development Institute heldChina’s…

On December 4, China Development Institute and National School of Development at Peking University co-hosted the 149th NSD Policy Talk on China’s economic outlook amid the COVID-19 outbreak and new international challenges. The event was also livestreamed on multiple media outlets.

Prof. Fan Gang,…

Themed “innovation, opening-up and stability”, China Development Institute held China’s financial centers development seminar in Shenzhen on December 4, 2020. Government, industry and regulatory representatives shared insights on financial regulation, as well as preventing and controlling…

On November 24, Mr.Peleg Lewi, Consul General of Israel to South China, visited CDI and exchanged ideas on the economic development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, as well as Sino-Israeli economic and academic cooperation with CDI researchers. Dr. Guo Wanda, executive vice president…

On August 11, Dr. Guoping Zhang shared views on China's experience and practice on coronavirus prevention and control, and elaborated on the economic recovery action plan and challenges brought by the pandemic. This lecture was part of the online training program "Enhancing Trade Competitiveness…

At a time when the global economy is facing a major shock from the Covid-19 pandemic, financial centres will play an enormous role in assisting recovery, as well as being candidates for recovery themselves.

On July 15, representatives of financial centres across the world were brought together…

Dr. Liu Muyun, CDI Guest Research Fellow and Director of the National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Personalized Cellular Therapy, participated in the virtual session of BRICS collaborating more effectively against the global pandemic as a panelist.

Dr. Liu Muyun shared Chinese…

Author: Guo Wanda, Executive Vice President of CDI

Editor’s note: Shenzhen Guangming Science City, which initially covered just 10 square kilometres, now covers close to 100 sq km and has become a key centre for China’s comprehensive national science programme due to its important role in Shenzhen’s high-quality development. Dr. Guo Wanda, Executive Vice President of China Development Institute, provided some insights into Shenzhen’s high-quality development, using Guangming Science City as an example.

High-quality development implies the adoption of higher standards and tougher requirements than standard processes, which in turn warrant a transition from investment-driven to…

Author: Xiao Geng, Chairman of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, and Professor of Peking University HSBC Business School

Editor’s note: During the launch of Global Financial Centres Index 29 on March 17, 2021, Professor Xiao Geng spoke about the global financial scene and the financial connections within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA).

On the greatest opportunities and challenges facing the global economy and finance in 2021

2020 was an extremely tough year for both China and the United States. China withstood the test of the pandemic and the US-Sino trade conflict, while the United States also went through the pandemic as well as election chaos and…

Author: Man Nga Ching, Vice Director, Department of Hong Kong, Macao and Regional Development

Editor’s note: February 18, 2021 marks the two-year anniversary of the announcement of the Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) cities have been exploring inter-city comprehensive regulatory and systematic integration within the framework of the existing legal system. While fruitful progress has been made, at the same time there is room for optimization.

Top-level design: build an innovative policy system under the “one country two systems” principle

Key projects such as Qianhai (of Shenzhen city), Nansha…

Author: Cao Yuanzheng, Member of the Board at CDI and Chairman of BOCI Research Limited

Creating new demand is a pressing task for China

Labor productivity has been declining since the turn of the century around the world, especially in developed countries. As major technological breakthroughs are hard to achieve, the global economy has entered a new phase that requires the creation of new demand from the new round of technological revolution.

In China, considering demand-supply management from the perspective of the dual-circulation development paradigm, the focus should be on promoting the growth of people's income, especially the income of the low and lower-middle income groups. In the…

Author: Guo Wanda, Executive Vice President of China Development Institute

What is Sustainable Financing

Sustainable financing refers to financing activities taking account of sustainable development criteria. It forms a financial development model that considers the coordination of humanity, society, economy and environment, and guides financial resources’ flow to more inclusive and sustainable areas.

The UN Environment first published a report in October 2015, entitled ‘Building a sustainable financial system’, which extends the field of sustainable financing to public debt, society and governance. This was further explored in November 2017, when the UN Environment and the World Bank…

Author: Fan Gang, President of China Development Institute

Only through further opening-up its economy can China boost its global competitiveness

The remarkable achievements China has made over the past four decades in institutional reform and economic development is a result of its opening-up policy and the development of its export-oriented economy.

Opening its economy enabled China to give its productive forces full play, and to export labor-intensive products in exchange for urgently-needed machines and technologies. Opening the domestic market and introducing foreign investment was crucial for China to grow its economy. It allowed China to learn advanced technology and science from…

Author: Fan Gang, President of China Development Institute

Editor’s Note: At "Global Venture Capital Conference 2020" held in Qingdao on 9th May, Prof. Fan commented on the big change and China's economic future.

Uncertainties continue to increase as the pandemic swept the world. The undetermined probability made it extremely difficult to conduct risk assessment, economic analysis or judgement. Hence, caution should be exercised in any analytical effort towards economic trends. Countries ought to apply bottom-line thinking and pay close attention to how the pandemic progresses.

With the tendency to becoming a norm, the pandemic’s side effects include interruption of supply chain and the…

Author: Fan Gang, President of China Development Institute

Editor’s Note: How can we cope with uncertainty during the initiate stage of pandemic? We should release “probable information” and take “regretless actions” instead of missing the window of opportunity, which is what we learn in the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of economics.

The toughest economic issue derived from the COVID-19 pandemic is “uncertainty”, which refers to not knowing the trend of something due to either the lack of existing knowledge or the insufficiency or inaccuracy of available information.

The first uncertainty about COVID-19, a virus that has never appeared before, is that people knew nothing about…

Author:Fu, Yongjia, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, China Development Institute

Editor’s Note:Confronting the deadliest virus in a century, China, Japan and South Korea demonstrated remarkable solidarity. The three nations in East Asia are giving helping hands to each other in hard times. In early February, when China’s confirmed cases were climbing, Japan and South Korea provided China with urgently needed protective gears, though they also face the danger of domestic transmission.

Now, when COVID cases are subsiding in the East Asia continent, China has been ramping up efforts to support Japan and South Korea and sending them medical supplies in large quantities. In an era where trust…

Contributor: Fan Gang, President of CDI,Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, Chief Economics Commentator, Forbes Asia

Editor’s Note: China’s economic recovery will be unlike the V-shaped rebound from the SARS outbreak in 2003. The structure of the Chinese economy today is very different from 2003, and China will also face global headwinds as the economies in North America and Europe are slowing down because of COVID-19. Expect a more gradual recovery.

Since the SARS outbreak in 2003, China’s economic structure has become more domestic consumption-led in an expanding service sector, and less dependent on infrastructure investment and manufacturing. It is ironic that this positive development is a key reason…

Author: Liu Guohong, Director of Department of Finance Industry

Editor’s Note: COVID-19, ran rampant during China’s Spring Festival. Currently, as the epidemic has been gradually brought under control and remains stable, we need to be alerted to inappropriate response by government departments at different levels, such as frequently rolling out economic policies or extending them to an undue degree, as they may lead to elevated local debt levels, inflation and even economic stagflation. Policies aimed to deal with the epidemic should stabilize market expectations and maintain market ecology, and not swing from side to side. It is important to reinvigorate the market and protect its…

Author: Cao Zhongxiong, Executive Director of New Economy Research Department of CDI

Editor’s Note:The “black swan” incident of the COVID-19 outbreak has led to the temporary shutdown of the global supply chain, making China the “gray rhino” in the world economy. To be sure, COVID-19 will not impede the process of China’s economic transformation and urbanization, but will change their development path.

The spread of the epidemic was accelerated by intense population flow, which is the characteristic of China’s “semi-urbanization”. Semi-urbanization is an incomplete state in the process of transforming rural population into urban population. This is manifested in the fact that farmers have…

Author: Cao Zhongxiong, Executive Director of New Economy Research Department of CDI

Editor’s note: The impact of this epidemic on the economy can be felt in both short and long terms. In the short term, the economy will be hit hard. In the long run, the epidemic will definitely have a profound impact on China’s industries.

In the short term, consumption, infrastructure and labor-intensive industries will suffer a greater blow. The impact on retail businesses such as shopping centers, wholesale markets and hotels is disastrous. Infrastructure construction, real estate development, and labor-intensive industries, such as textile and clothing among other traditional industries, have been hit…

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According to UN report, population aging is one of the problems the world has to confront with by 2050. Being the two big countries in Asia, Japan is one of the fastest aging countries…

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As 2022 unfolds, the global economy is faced with tremendous complications. On one hand, Covid-19 pandemic took an unexpected turn with the Omicron variant, disrupting local economy and…